Here are a few ideas for new sports, combining two existing ones, with an emphasis on low probability and high novelty:

1. Quidditch-on-Ice (Probability: 3%) Concept: Imagine Quidditch, but instead of flying on brooms, players are on ice skates, using modified brooms as sticks. The Quaffle is a lighter, air-filled ball that can be batted with brooms or passed by hand (while skating). The Bludgers are robotic drones that hover and attempt to knock players off balance, while the Beaters use their brooms to deflect them. The Golden Snitch is a small, remote-controlled drone that zips erratically around the arena, requiring a Seeker to catch it with a specialized net on their broom.
Why it's novel: The combination of ice skating's fluidity and speed with Quidditch's multi-ball, multi-role chaos creates a uniquely challenging and visually dynamic sport. The robotic Bludgers add an unpredictable, modern twist.

2. Underwater Chessboxing (Probability: 7%) Concept: Players alternate rounds between playing a game of chess on a weighted, waterproof board at the bottom of a shallow pool (requiring them to hold their breath and strategize quickly), and a round of "underwater boxing" (wearing weighted gloves, punches are slower and more about technique and displacement than power, with a focus on form and minimal flailing to conserve air). Rounds are short, and the game is scored on both chess progress and boxing performance, with a knockout in either discipline ending the match.
Why it's novel: It merges the intense cerebral focus of chess with the physical endurance and controlled aggression of boxing, all under the added constraint of breath-holding and water resistance. It's a true test of both mind and body in an unconventional environment.

3. Synchronized Skijumping & Archery (Probability: 9%) Concept: Teams of two compete. One participant is a ski jumper, launching off a large ramp. The second participant, positioned at the top of the ramp or a nearby platform, is an archer. As the ski jumper reaches the apex of their jump, the archer attempts to shoot a target positioned on the jumper's back or a small flag they are holding. Points are awarded for both jump distance/style and archery accuracy, with bonus points for hitting the target while the jumper is airborne and in a specific pose. Synchronicity between the archer's shot and the jumper's flight is key.
Why it's novel: It demands incredible timing, precision, and trust between two athletes performing entirely different, high-stakes actions simultaneously. The visual spectacle of an arrow soaring towards a mid-air ski jumper would be unlike anything seen before.

4. Extreme Ironing Croquet (Probability: 1%) Concept: This sport combines the precise, strategic game of croquet with the absurd, adventurous world of extreme ironing. Teams or individuals must complete a croquet course, but each hoop requires them to perform an "extreme ironing" task before they can hit their ball through it. This could involve setting up an ironing board and iron in precarious locations (e.g., on a unicycle, while hanging from a climbing rope, balancing on a paddleboard, halfway up a tree) and ironing a small garment, all while racing against opponents. Fouls occur if the ironing isn't demonstrably "extreme" enough or if the garment isn't properly pressed.
Why it's novel: It's the ultimate juxtaposition of a genteel, low-impact game with a truly bizarre and often dangerous "sport." The humor and spectacle come from the inherent absurdity and the challenge of maintaining composure and precision in ridiculous situations.